Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.018279 0.020751 0.023445 0.026597 0.030189 0.034155 0.038871
2025-03-09 0.014524 0.017943 0.022000 0.027176 0.033615 0.041379 0.051474
2025-03-16 0.012135 0.015868 0.020560 0.026906 0.035289 0.046019 0.060854
2025-03-23 0.010875 0.014900 0.020204 0.027730 0.038177 0.052232 0.072682
2025-03-30 0.009358 0.013340 0.018804 0.026882 0.038583 0.055009 0.079988
2025-04-06 0.008299 0.012256 0.017886 0.026521 0.039515 0.058471 0.088464
2025-04-13 0.007256 0.011063 0.016657 0.025528 0.039346 0.060216 0.094453
2025-04-20 0.006839 0.010747 0.016669 0.026362 0.041963 0.066325 0.107695
2025-04-27 0.006435 0.010401 0.016586 0.027012 0.044318 0.072195 0.121099
2025-05-04 0.006114 0.010147 0.016611 0.027816 0.046965 0.078737 0.136225
2025-05-11 0.005626 0.009570 0.016051 0.027582 0.047829 0.082361 0.146670
2025-05-18 0.005237 0.009120 0.015657 0.027577 0.049062 0.086685 0.158722
2025-05-25 0.004806 0.008567 0.015051 0.027173 0.049593 0.089905 0.169266
2025-06-01 0.004564 0.008328 0.014972 0.027704 0.051873 0.096495 0.186826
2025-06-08 0.004229 0.007885 0.014486 0.027432 0.052614 0.100279 0.199341
2025-06-15 0.004079 0.007771 0.014589 0.028273 0.055545 0.108467 0.221392
2025-06-22 0.003722 0.007233 0.013848 0.027408 0.055043 0.109905 0.229830
2025-06-29 0.003461 0.006857 0.013382 0.027040 0.055487 0.113242 0.242528
2025-07-06 0.003150 0.006356 0.012632 0.026027 0.054508 0.113568 0.248784
2025-07-13 0.003069 0.006310 0.012781 0.026877 0.057506 0.122447 0.274695
2025-07-20 0.002972 0.006223 0.012840 0.027540 0.060159 0.130827 0.300354
2025-07-27 0.002895 0.006173 0.012968 0.028360 0.063227 0.140386 0.329730
2025-08-03 0.002726 0.005911 0.012628 0.028122 0.063897 0.144653 0.347070